Cancer diagnosis

To start on the way back, I planned to talk about the cancer treatment that I will be undergoing starting in a couple of days.  The focus will be on my thoughts, feelings, and just general experiences along the way.  I don't envision this as some guide for future cancer sufferers or advice or anything like that.  Perhaps it will be interesting to family and friends to learn a bit more about me, but the reality is that this is as much just for me as for anyone.

It would have been best to start this when I first found out I had cancer as those early days were really crazy.  For the most part, I was very confident of beating this thing and that I would still live for another 20+ years, but when you don't know anything more than that you have it that confidence can be shaken.  I can be a funny person in a way, as I find myself grieving for things that have not even happened yet and that was part of what I went through;  the idea of missing my kids college years or getting married, helping them grow and seeing what they become was truly what scared me the most and really got the eyes watering.  As they say, its the chance of losing something which really makes you realize how important it is to you and there was no doubt that they were top of the list!

I really appreciate the ENT doctor who first provided me with some details that gave me a better understanding.  She was actually helping out for my primary doctor because he was on vacation that week.  She noted that there was a P16 test which showed a positive result and said that this was great news as it meant that the chance of success in treatment is much higher.  It led me to doing some research which showed that the success rate in treating neck cancers which had this positive test was 85%!

The next great news was the PET scan which showed that the cancer had not spread to other parts of my body.  There were a couple of hot spots seen, but they were clearly not related to this or indicative of other cancer locations.  So now we were moving forward in a positive way.

The nice thing about having a blog page is that you can just ignore it for a long time and it will leave you alone, especially when you don't have a big following (or any following for that matter).  Its also nice because its there when you want it, so that you can just write whatever you feel when you want.

So now is time for the third iteration and restart of this blog.  I orginally started it just to try to whole system out and see what its like.  Then I used it as a way to communicate real estate info without loading down other sites which I thought were less appropriate.  Now I plan to use this to capture thoughts on my upcoming cancer treatment and other things that are important to me.  It will hopefully be an way to explore those things and that this will lead to my next big project/job/activity/passion/life goal.  Or perhaps I'll just go back to my leisure pursuits and we will see you on iteration number 4?

Latest Trendgraphix data

New home sales jump to near 2-1/2 year high in September

Just a quick link to another story about the improving real estate market,
New home sales jump to near 2-1/2 year high in September - Yahoo! News.  This is national news, but reinforces that our local market is still strong.

Median home prices in Bay Area and Santa Clara County

Pricing in the Bay Area are definitely on the rise as the latest data is showing, for example see http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay121015.aspx.  Median prices have softened over the past couple of months in Santa Clara County though they are still much better than this time last year, here the chart for the past 5 years:

The more interesting data, though, is to look at average pricing of For Sale homes which is trending up very strongly:

It would be easy to see this upward trend as a leading indicator of house pricing and certainly the pricing has improved in many areas, but there are many factors that could be driving this average up beyond just pricing. Some examples could be that all the cheaper housing is sold quickly, which they are, and higher end homes are on the market longer distorting the numbers. This will need to wait for a later post, but the low inventory levels we are experiencing is also a factor, as the lower end homes are not coming on the market and when they do they sell so quickly as to not show up in this data. That's my take on the trend, FWIW; more soon to see if the data fits the theory.

New home sales down - Driverless Cars!

Here is an update on new home sales, down in August, but the market is different now speel, http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/home-sales-slip-time-different-corelogic-chief-economist-160034104.html.  This is nation-wide, of course, and while I am a firm believer that the housing market here in Silicon Valley is doing well, I would be leary of statements like "its different now" and future looking predictions.

More exciting, though, is Bob Lutz's statement that all cars will be driverless in 20 years, http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/cars-driverless-20-years-bob-lutz-133826028.html, which was the story linked as previous to the above story.  While being a bold prediction, there is definitely data to show the trend and there are such obvious benefits that it seems like a given to me.  The biggest obstacles are likely to be those of us that actually enjoy driving.

Good and not so good news on home sales

First, the good news home prices continue to rise across the nation, as discussed in this story, http://news.yahoo.com/home-prices-consumer-confidence-gain-145737113--business.html.  The key quote from this story:

"Housing is out of the woods and it should be making a contribution to the overall economy going forward," David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor's, told Reuters Insider.

On the not so good side, comes this story that inventory levels are still low and unlikely to rebound soon, http://www.inman.com/buyers-sellers/columnists/dianhymer/2013-optimism-keeps-home-sellers-sidelines.  The inventory problem has been particularly acute in the San Francisco Bay Area, where the number of homes for sale has dropped by nearly 50%.  This columnist is less optimistic than the general press and thinks that the future of the housing market is far from clear.

CA leading nation in inventory declines, price rises

Good story from Inman News on the drop in inventories that is happening nation-wide, http://www.inman.com/news/2012/09/18/shrinking-inventory-bolstering-many-housing-markets.  The local data confirms that the Bay Area, and California in general, is leading these inventory declines and price rises.  There has been a slight drop in median prices in August, but there is no sign today that this drop is the beginning of a trend.

Millenials spend less than previous generations

An interesting story in the Atlantic about how Millenials are spending less on the big ticket items, namely cars and houses, than previous generations, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/09/the-cheapest-generation/309060/2/.  The real estate part is mostly on the second page, but its an interesting look at how spending habits and desires have changed over the past 30+ years.  I had already been noting to my friends how today's kids are less interested in driving and cars than we were, with many not getting their license until they go to college or even later.  That compares to when I was a teenager and we would go to the DMV on our 16th birthday to get a license as soon as possible.

Saratoga Union most sought after school district

Its great to see Saratoga Union School District listed as the most sought after school district in the country, according to Trulia, see story at http://blog.sfgate.com/ontheblock/2012/09/07/saratoga-union-is-most-attractive-school-district-in-the-country/.  The methodology for determining this is a bit simplistic, but makes sense and does reflect that families are moving into the district when their kids are school age.  It also reflects the increased value homes in the district have due to the schools.  Great job, SUSD!

Buyers getting frustrated with market

Here is an interesting post by the guys at Redfin on their regular survey of buyers sentiments about the market, http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2012/08/homebuyer_enthusiasm_slips_growing_sense_that_the_market_has_shifted_toward_sellers.html.  This highlights the problems buyers are having today due to the low inventory levels of homes.  At this point, it seems more likely that we will see a reduction in buyers, perhaps due to rising interest rates or people just giving up on the market, before we see big increases in inventories.

Home Repair Apps

Here is a useful story for those who have home repair jobs and need some help finding a contractor, http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_21482946/click-your-way-home-repair?source=rss.  There is no info on who he finally used for the project and how it went, but some good info on apps that may be useful.  Of course, being a realtor, you can also contact me for helping finding a good handyman :-).

Frank Gehry designing new Facebook office

Famous architect Frank Gehry is working with Mark Zuckerberg on the new office building for Facebook, see this story for details http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-24/facebook-gehry-build-idea-factory-for-ripstik-geeks.html.  It sounds like an amazing space that may revolutionize office spaces in the future.

More stories on rising home prices

The Mercury News, via their local Saratoga News, has a couple of good stories about rising home prices in Silicon Valley:

The first one, http://www.mercurynews.com/saratoga/ci_21358602/buyers-priced-out-by-rising-home-cost, talks about how the home affordability index for our valley is dropping as prices rise.  Only about 1/3 of residents in the valley can afford to buy a home according to this index, which is down significantly despite interest rates hitting new lows.

The second story, http://www.mercurynews.com/saratoga/ci_21358606/valleys-million-dollar-home-sales-among-highest-state, talks about the rise in million dollar home sales.  In our area, Saratoga had the second highest level of million dollar plus home sales, behind only Hillsborough, with a 35% increase to 126 homes sold for over $1,000,000.

Housing market nationally looking better

This is a good Economist story about how the national housing market is doing, http://www.economist.com/node/21559923.  We are seeing similar trends here in Silicon Valley, with more cash buyers and investors purchasing homes.  The interesting thing here is that most renters would prefer to own their homes, so perhaps we will see more activity again in a year or two as these investors sell these homes for a profit to their current renters or another family.

Latest data shows market is still very tight

The latest real estate sales data from Trendgraphix shows that the real estate market in Santa Clara County is still very tight, with inventory levels well below last year:


Not surprisingly, pricing is rising with median prices more than 15% above this time last year and 10% above their levels only 2 months ago:

Explanation of CA's Prop 8 on property taxes

Here, http://www.mercurynews.com/bay-area-news/ci_21134921/homeowner-headache-understanding-other-proposition-8?IADID=Search-www.mercurynews.com-www.mercurynews.com, is a good story explaining the impact of Prop. 8 on homeowners tax rates.  This is a big issue in Silicon Valley where many property owners saw the value of their home drop significantly in 2008 but recover this year.

Fixed mortgage rates drop further

Here is one of the reasons for the hot market in real estate, http://www.mercurynews.com/real-estate/ci_21167877/freddie-mac-says-30-year-fixed-mortgage-plunges.  These amazingly low rates, below 3.5% for 30-year fixed and as low as 2.8% for 15-year fixed are also driving a very high level of refinancing by home owners.  For buyers, the key number is monthly payments and these low rates mean that they can buy more expensive homes. 

To illustrate this, assume a buyer can afford a monthly loan payment of $5,000/mo for a property.  At 3.5%, 30-year fixed with 20% down, this buyer could afford to buy a home that cost almost $1.4m (the monthly payment at $1.4m is $5,029).  However if the interest rate was 5%, the same buyer cannot even afford a $1.2m home (where the monthly payment is $5,153).  This buyer can get significantly more house for $200,000, while paying less each month and even overall.

Who wouldn't want to take advantage of these rates if they could?

Seller's market

Another Mercury News story about the improvements in our real estate market, http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_21142320/bay-area-housing-values-jump-second-quarter-zillow.  Multiple offers and bidding wars have been true for several months now in this area, but this provides some further information on why inventory levels are so low.

California Olympians

This story, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/26/bay-area-olympians-_n_1706946.html, is not about real estate, but it highlights how wonderful this area is and how successful its residents.  There is no doubt that the climate and money in this area is a factor, but I think its also due to a strong push for excellence by so many of the people who live here.  Silicon Valley people are always striving to improve themselves and be the best in what they do.